二叠纪原油产量增加或会刺激新一轮基建支出

据世界石油网7月9日休斯顿报道，全球著名自然资源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹（WM）的最新研究结果显示，美国二叠纪盆地原油产量不断增加意味着到下个十年末该盆地将需要最高每天50万桶的额外原油输送能力。

随着当前这波管道投资浪潮的结束，预计本世纪20年代初管道产能将适度过剩，到2022年底，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的中游运营商将每天增加大约400万桶的新产能。

这波管道投资浪潮包括7项新建二叠纪油气管道的提议，其中4项最终将达成最终投资决定(FID)。每天超过200万桶的新产能将流入科珀斯克里斯蒂市场用于出口。

北美原油市场首席分析师约翰•科尔曼表示：“随着产量增长持续到本世纪30年代，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的输油管道产能将会吃紧。到本世纪30年代中期，在缺乏进一步投资的情况下，二叠纪盆地到墨西哥湾管道的利用率将超过92%，这就需要管道扩建或新建管道产能。”

WM的供应预测显示，对二叠纪盆地到墨西哥湾沿岸原油日产量的需求将增加至50万桶，而FID对新产能的需求可能在本世纪20年代中后期达到。

科尔曼说：“我们正处于美国历史上最大的原油基础设施投资热潮之一，其中大部分投资集中在二叠纪盆地。尽管目前的投资浪潮规模巨大，但我们认为故事还没有结束。到下一个十年末，将需要再次增加额外的管道输油能力。”

科尔曼说：“这个故事的下一章将聚焦于确保沿海市场有足够的出口终端产能。随着这些新管道在今年晚些时候投入使用，我们预计科珀斯克里斯蒂的原油出口量将大幅增加。”

李峻 编译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Wood Mac: Growth in the Permian may spur fresh wave of infrastructure spending

Growing supply of Permian crude means the basin will need extra crude oil takeaway capacity of up to 500,000 bpd by the end of next decade, according to new research from global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

A moderate overbuild of pipeline capacity is expected in the early 2020s as the current wave of pipeline investments are completed, with midstream operators set to add about 4 MMbpd of new U.S. Gulf Coast-bound capacity by the end of 2022.

This wave of investment includes seven proposals for new Permian pipelines, with four ultimately reaching a final investment decision (FID). More than 2 MMbpd of this new capacity will flow into the Corpus Christi market for export.

John Coleman, principal analyst, North America crude markets, said: “As production growth expands well into the 2030s, US Gulf Coast-bound pipeline capacity will tighten. By the mid-2030s, Permian-to-Gulf Coast pipeline utilization will surpass 92% in the absence of further investment, necessitating pipeline expansions or greenfield capacity.”

Wood Mackenzie's supply forecast indicates there will be an additional call for Permian-to-Gulf Coast crude capacity of up to 500,000 bpd, with FID for the new capacity likely to be reached in the mid-to-late 2020s.

Coleman said: “We are in the midst of align="justify">“As massive as this current investment wave is, we don't think the story is yet finished. Additional capacity adds will be needed again by the end of the next decade.

“The next chapter in this story will be focused align="justify">