俄罗斯不太可能进一步削减石油产量

据莫斯科时报11月20日报道，有消息人士表示，俄罗斯不太可能在下个月与其他石油出口国举行的会议上同意进一步削减石油产量，但可能承诺延长现有的减产协议，以支持沙特阿拉伯。

12月5日，欧佩克将在维也纳总部举行会议，随后将与包括俄罗斯在内的其他一些石油出口国举行会谈。

同样在12月5日，沙特阿拉伯将宣布其能源公司沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)的公开募股定价，该公司希望这将是全球规模最大的首次公开募股（IPO），那天的油价可能对此次股票发行的定价至关重要。

消息人士对路透表示，欧佩克及其盟友担忧2020年石油需求增长疲弱。据莫斯科时报11月20日报道，俄罗斯上星期为12月的会谈定下了基调，称沙特阿拉伯在会谈前的立场是“强硬的”。

莫斯科方面表示，在寒冷的冬季，石油产量很难主动削减，尤其是在西伯利亚西部，而俄罗斯三分之二的石油产自那里，并且大部分的钻井平台也位于那里。

专家表示，如果油井在冰冻条件下停止开采，可能会发生爆炸。但是，在零下50摄氏度的极端低温下，可能会导致非自愿减产。

一位知情人士指出:“12月的会谈进行的如何很难预测。俄罗斯断然不会同意在冬季实行(进一步)减产。”该国石油部没有回复记者的置评请求。

不过仍有发生“惊喜”的可能性，在最新一轮的谈判中，欧佩克、俄罗斯和其他一些大型产油国已同意，从2020年1月1日起将各自的石油日产量削减120万桶。这项协议将一直持续到三月底。消息人士表示：“正式的协商还没有开始进行，结果可能会反转。虽然俄罗斯不能在冬季削减更多石油产量，但意外总是有可能发生的。”

11月俄罗斯石油日产量增至1125万桶，未能达到其减产配额目标。根据路透的计算，结合与欧佩克及非欧佩克产油国达成的协议，俄罗斯石油日产量应控制在1117-1118万桶左右。

俄罗斯将于下月开始向中国供应天然气，这也将提高该国凝析油的产量。

另一位业内人士表示，俄罗斯企业正寻求在2020年提高产量，以支持国家预算。

邹勤 摘译自 莫斯科时报

原文如下：

Russia Unlikely to Cut Oil Output

Russia is unlikely to agree to deepen cuts in oil output at a meeting with fellow exporters next month, but could commit to extend existing curbs to support Saudi Arabia, three sources said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets align="justify">Also align="justify">The sources told Reuters that OPEC and its allies are worried about weak demand growth in 2020.

Russian President Vladimir Putin set the tone for the December meeting last week, calling Saudi Arabia's position ahead of the talks "tough."

Moscow argues that it will be hard for it to cut oil production voluntarily during the cold winter months, especially in western Siberia, where Russia produces two-thirds of its oil and where most of its well rigs are located.

Experts have said that an oil well could explode if halted in frozen conditions. However, there are risks that extreme low temperatures of around -50 Celsius, could lead to an involuntary production decline.

"We expect uneasy talks in December. Russia will not categorically agree to (deepen) cuts in winter," a source familiar with the matter said align="justify">"Surprises a possibility"

In the latest iteration of the deal, OPEC, Russia and some other large oil producers, have agreed to cut their combined oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan.1. The agreement runs through to the end of March.

"Serious consultations have not yet started. Rollover looks more likely. Russia cannot reduce more in winter time. But surprises are always a possibility," an OPEC source said.

On Monday, a source familiar with the data told Reuters that in November Russia had increased its oil production to 11.25 million barrels per day (bpd), missing its output targets.

Under the pact with OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, Russia should cap output at around 11.17-11.18 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations, which use a metric ton to barrel ratio of 7.33.

Russian natural gas supplies to China, which are set to start next month, will also boost output of gas condensate, part of the oil mix.

Another industry source said that Russian companies are seeking to boost their output in 2020 to support the state budget.