欧佩克+关注者认为产量协议延期但无进一步削减

据世界石油11月27日伦敦彭博社报道，对欧佩克及其合作伙伴将进一步削减石油产量的任何期望几乎都烟消云散了。

彭博社在一项全球调查中，35名分析师和贸易员中只有一位预测，石油输出国组织及其盟国将在下周开会时同意进一步削减石油和天然气价格。

他们中的大多数人都希望由24国联盟-今年将日产量减少120万桶以防止供应过剩-将决定将其现有的供应限制延长至2020年中期。

这是从本月初开始的转变，本月初，该组织承诺采取“一切措施”来平衡市场，这激发了人们对在规模更大的少数群体中采取进一步行动的期望。当时，38个国家中有9个国家预期会进一步削减。

沙特阿拉伯一直是盟国的推动力量之一，但它并未试图促使其他成员采取更积极的行动。利雅得仍然感到失望的是，其减产幅度是沙特在今年协议中承诺的两倍以上，而伊拉克和尼日利亚等其他国家则未能履行承诺。

石油输出国组织最大的盟国俄罗斯今年大部分时间都未能遵守协议。彭博社看到的政府数据显示，从11月1日至11月26日，该国平均每天生产1124.4万桶原油和凝析油。这比欧佩克+的上限多出54,000桶，并且假设在11月的剩余几天里不会大幅减产，这将成为俄罗斯不遵守欧佩克+协定的2019年的第八个月。

欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴金多还表示，该组织明年的前景已经改变。尽管该生产集团在2020年上半年每天仍有约65万桶石油过剩，但经济背景“更加光明”，并估计美国的页岩供应。--卡特尔的主要竞争对手--可能会大幅下降。

该组织及其盟国将生产约一半的世界石油，将于12月5日至6日在维也纳的OPEC总部开会，以决定未来的政策。

郝芬 译自 世界石油

原文如下：

OPEC+ watchers see extension of output deal, but no further cuts

Any expectations that OPEC and its partners will make deeper cuts to oil production have all but evaporated.

Just align="justify">Most of them expect the 24-nation coalition -- which cut output by 1.2 MMbpd this year to prevent a glut -- will decide to prolong their existing supply limits until the middle of 2020.

That’s a shift from the start of this month, when the group’s promises to do “whatever it takes” to balance markets inspired expectations of further action in a more sizable minority. Back then, nine out of 38 were anticipating a deeper cutback.

Saudi Arabia, which has been align="justify">Russia, OPEC’s largest ally, has been failing to keep its side of the bargain for much of this year. The country pumped an average of 11.244 million barrels a day of crude and condensate from Nov. 1 to Nov. 26, according to government data seen by Bloomberg. That’s 54,000 barrels more than its OPEC+ cap and, assuming there won’t be a sharp cut in output in the remaining days of November, this will become the eighth month in 2019 of Russia’s non-compliance with the OPEC+ deal.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo also signaled that the organization’s outlook for next year has changed. Even though the producer group still sees a surplus of about 650,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2020, Barkindo said that the economic backdrop is “brighter” and estimates shale supplies from the U.S. -- the cartel’s main rival -- may be lowered substantially.

The group and its allies, which pump about half the world’s oil, will meet at OPEC headquarters in Vienna from Dec. 5 to 6 to decide align="justify">