欧佩克认为明年美国石油产量持续增长将迅速放缓

据美国彭博新闻社2019年12月2日莫斯科报道，欧佩克正在对美国石油革命进行另一场大胆的预测：美国页岩的黄金时代已经结束。

根据熟悉内部讨论的人士所说，当欧佩克本周召开会议时，各成员国石油部长们将讨论是否要延长减产协议、而不是降低当前的产量目标。他们认为，美国石油产量的持续增长明年将迅速放缓。

欧佩克这样认为并不孤独。在整个行业，石油交易商和高管们认为，美国石油产量在2020年的增幅将低于今年，并将明显低于2018年。在理论上，欧佩克控制着全球石油市场。

在2019年的大部分时间里，布伦特原油的价格一直在每桶60美元左右，比年初高出了大约14%，但远低于4月底每桶75.60美元的峰值。

大宗商品交易公司摩科瑞能源集团有限公司负责人马尔科·杜南德说，沙特阿拉伯在平衡市场方面做得还不错。但他也发出了一些警告：“欧佩克将需要非常密切关注美国的产量。”

但沙特阿拉伯及其盟友应当警惕不要低估来自美国页岩和其它非欧佩克供应国的竞争。

李峻 编译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Opec+ gambles that US shale’s golden age is over

Now, OPEC is making another bold forcasting align="justify">When the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets this week, ministers will discuss whether to extend their current output target, rather than reduce it, according to people familiar with the internal debate. The reason? They believe relentless US oil production growth will slow rapidly next year.

Opec isn’t alone. Across the industry, oil traders and executives believe US production will grow less in 2020 than this year, and at a significantly slower rate than in 2018. align="justify">Brent crude has been trading around $60 a barrel for most of 2019, about 14% higher than at the start of the year but well below the peak of $75.60 a barrel set in late April.

“Saudi Arabia is doing a reasonable job to balance the market,” said Marco Dunand, head of commodity trading house Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. He has some words of warning too: “Opec will need to watch US production very closely.”

But Saudi Arabia and its allies should be wary of discounting competition from US shale and other non-Opec suppliers.