若欧佩克不能深化减产 油价可能降至40美元

据今日油价12月3日报道，雷斯塔能源公司预测，除非欧佩克在2020年进一步减产，否则全球原油库存将大幅增加，油价也将相应下跌。

随着欧佩克成员国和俄罗斯将于12月5日至6日聚集在奥地利首都讨论2020年的石油产量水平，一个紧要关头将在维也纳发生。

雷斯塔能源石油市场研究主管BjørnarTonhaugen表示，我们向欧佩克+国家明确传达了一个信息：当前生产协议的“延期”不足以维持市场的平衡并确保2020年稳定的油价环境。如果欧佩克+未能就进一步削减达成共识，则石油市场前景将黯淡。

根据里斯塔德能源的估计，到2020年上半年，全球石油市场将从根本上供过于求，达到每天80万桶。

经验证据表明，预计每天有100万桶的石油过剩将导致每月油价下跌约5％，这意味着六个月内可能下跌30％。

Tonhaugen表示，如果欧佩克和俄罗斯不延长和深化他们的削减，我们可以看到布伦特混合原油明年会在很短的时间内跌到40美元。为了确保市场平衡，我们的研究表明，鉴于我们对需求、非欧佩克供应的预测，以及国际海事组织2020年新规定对全球原油运行的影响，欧佩克需要将原油日产量降至2890万桶，比2019年第四季度的水平下降了80万桶。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Oil Could Fall To $40 If OPEC+ Fails To Deepen Cuts

Barring additional oil production cuts by OPEC in 2020, Rystad Energy forecasts a substantial build of global crude stocks and a corresponding drop in oil prices.

A showdown is taking place in Vienna as OPEC countries plus Russia will gather in the Austrian capital align="justify">“We have a clear message to the OPEC+ countries: A ‘roll-over’ of the current production agreement is not enough to preserve a balanced market and ensure a stable oil price environment in 2020,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy. “The outlook will be bleak if OPEC+ fails to agree align="justify">According to Rystad Energy’s estimates, the global oil market will be fundamentally oversupplied to the tune of 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2020.

Empirical evidence has demonstrated that a 1 million bpd surplus of oil can be expected to cause an oil price decline of around 5% per month, implying a potential drop of 30% over six months.

“If OPEC and Russia don’t extend and deepen their cuts, we could see Brent Blend dip to the $40s next year for a shorter period,” Tonhaugen said.

“In order to ensure a balanced market, our research indicates that OPEC would need to reduce crude production to 28.9 million bpd – a drop of 0.8 million bpd from the level seen in the fourth quarter of 2019-levels – given our forecast for demand, non-OPEC supply and the impact of new IMO 2020 regulations align="justify">