2020年原油价格将保持在可控范围

据世界石油网站12月24日休斯顿报道 分析人士称，原油价格在2020年可能会保持在可控范围内，因为欧佩克+减产被其他国家增产和需求前景喜忧参半所抵消。

分析人士表示，由于新兴市场需求强劲以及欧佩克的减产削减了全球库存，油价在年中攀升。去年12月初，沙特进一步削减供应，令市场感到意外，加上国际贸易形势有解冻迹象，可能提振需求，导致一些知名分析师上调了预期。

高盛集团根据达米恩?库瓦林和杰夫?库里等分析师的报告，将布伦特原油的价格预期从60美元上调至63美元/桶，这意味着库存将比我们之前预期的更为紧张，尤其是到2020年上半年。

根据彭博社自去年12月初欧佩克会议以来编制的分析师预估中值，2020年西德克萨斯中质原油平均每桶价格将达到58.50美元，而目前的水平约为60美元，2019年迄今的平均水平为56.95美元，布伦特原油的平均价格预计为64.25美元/桶。

期货曲线处于回调状态，WTI现货溢价约为4美元/桶，布伦特溢价约为5.25美元/桶，高于2020年12月的合约。近期交割的溢价来自于生产商出售期货合约以对冲未来几年的产出以及库存可能下降带来的影响。

王磊 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Analysts see few surprises in 2020 as OPEC+ cuts trim surplus

Oil prices are likely to remain in check during 2020 as OPEC+ production cuts are offset by higher output from other countries and a mixed outlook for demand, according to analysts.

Analysts see prices climbing higher in the middle of the year as stronger emerging-market demand and the OPEC+ cuts trim global inventories. Saudi Arabia surprised the market in early December with a deeper supply cut, which, along with signs of a thaw in the international trade that may boost demand, lead some prominent analysts to revise their forecasts higher.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its estimate for Brent crude to $63 a barrel from $60, according to a note from analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie. “This points to a tighter inventory path than we previously expected, especially through first-half of 2020.”

West Texas Intermediate will average $58.50 a barrel in 2020, according to the median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg since the OPEC+ meeting in early December. That compares to the current level of around $60 and the average so far in 2019 of $56.95. Brent is forecast to average $64.25 a barrel.

The forward curve is in backwardation, with spot prices for WTI about $4 a barrel and Brent about $5.25 a barrel higher than December 2020 contracts. That premium for near-term delivery comes as producers sell forward contracts to hedge their output for the next couple of years and as inventories are seen as likely to decline.