明年美国液化天然气可能出现供应过剩

据路透社12月30日报道，美国液化天然气(LNG)出口在经历了创纪录的一年飙升60%后，在2020年，将面临市场需求减弱和激烈竞争的担忧加剧的不利因素。

今年，四条新的液化天然气生产线在美国投入使用。到2024年，美国有望成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国。

对于依赖燃煤电厂的亚洲国家来说，液化天然气将作为一种替代能源。近年来，超冷燃料的三大出口国卡塔尔、澳大利亚和美国的液化天然气出口大幅增长。

今年年初，亚洲的暖冬减少了取暖需求，促使亚洲进口商将货物转移到欧洲。

能源投资管理公司turtle董事总经理兼能源投资组合经理詹姆斯•米克(James Mick)表示，到2020年，液化天然气价格可能会保持一定程度的低迷状态，除非大西洋彼岸和远东地区出现寒冬。

到目前为止，欧洲TRNLTTFMc1和亚洲JKMc1的价格在2019年下降了约40%，为多年来的最低水平。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和Energy Aspects的分析师表示，由于需求不足，美国部分液化天然气出口终端可能在2020年暂时关闭。价格下降和需求疲软可能危及仍在开发中的无数液化天然气项目。

洪伟立 摘译自 路透社

原文如下：

U.S. LNG exports soar in 2019 but supply glut may await in 2020

U.S. exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) head into 2020 after a record year that saw exports soar by more than 60%, but growing concerns about weakened demand and heavy competition could act as headwinds in the coming year.

Four new liquefaction trains - the common term for a shipping facility - entered service this year in the United States. The U.S. is align="justify">LNG is seen as an alternative for Asian countries that have relied align="justify">The fickle nature of the market was apparent early this year, when a warm winter in Asia cut heating demand and prompted Asian importers to divert cargoes to Europe.

“It’s likely that LNG prices will stay somewhat depressed in 2020, unless we get a cold winter across the pond and in the Far East,” said James Mick, managing director and energy portfolio manager at energy investment manager Tortoise.

Prices in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and Asia JKMc1 are down by around 40% so far in 2019 to their lowest in years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Energy Aspects say some U.S. LNG export terminals could shut temporarily in 2020 due to a lack of demand. Lower prices and weak demand could endanger the myriad of LNG projects still in development.