石油分析师认为今年油价将小幅上涨

据能源世界网1月3日新德里报道，根据路透社周二公布的一项民意调查显示，明年油价可能会徘徊在每桶63美元左右，这得益于欧佩克及其盟国的更大幅度减产。

根据一项对38位经济学家和分析师的调查显示，基准布伦特原油基准价格到2020年平均每桶63.07美元，略高于上个月的62.50美元。

到目前为止，布伦特原油价格在2019年已经上涨了约24%，在俄罗斯等石油出口国和盟国组织削减供应的支持下，该价格继续小幅回升。

本月早些时候，该组织同意于2020年第一季度将供应削减从每天120万桶深化到170万桶。

资本经济学的亚历山大·科祖尔-赖特表示，再加上我们对美国供应增长放缓的预期，我们认为欧佩克深化减产的决定将使石油市场在明年初陷入赤字。

根据国际能源署（IEA）预计，2020年美国石油总产量增长将从2019年的160万桶/天降至110万桶/天。

由于生产商自1999年以来首次连续第四个季度减少石油钻机的数量，美国产出增长率一直在下降。

预计2020年美国WTI原油期货均价为每桶57.70美元，高于上月的预测每桶57.30美元。预计2020年日需求将增长90万-140万。

分析师指出，国际海事组织（IMO）于2020年1月1日生效的有利于低硫燃料油的新规定将是推动需求增长的另一个主导因素。

OANDA高级市场分析师Edward Moya表示，全球增长反弹的故事应该会为今年上半年的油价带来奇迹。 供过于求的担忧仍将存在，但是需求的回升将缓解挪威，巴西和圭亚那的强劲增长。

虽然大多数受访者对近期油价持乐观态度，但没有一位受访分析师预计，基准布伦特油价将高于2019年4月触及的75.60美元高位。

LBBW分析师弗兰克·沙伦伯格表示，供应方的主要问题是：欧佩克是否真的会坚持最新的协议，并削减产量，因为欧佩克的产量水平已经很低。

自2017年以来，欧佩克及其生产盟国一直在限制其集体产量，俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大·诺瓦克（Alexander Novak）周五表示，欧佩克+成员国可能会考虑在2020年结束其石油产量限制。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

Oil analysts bet>Oil prices are likely to hover around $63 a barrel next year, a Reuters poll showed>Benchmark Brent crude is forecast to average $63.07 per barrel in 2020, up marginally from last month's $62.50 estimate, a survey of 38 economists and analysts showed.

Brent prices have gained about 24 per cent in 2019 so far, continuing its modest recovery>The group earlier this month agreed to deepen supply cuts from 1.2 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 1.7 mbpd for the first quarter of 2020.

"Together with our expectation of slowing U.S. supply growth, we think that OPEC's decision to deepen production cuts will tip the oil market into a deficit early next year," said Alexander Kozul-Wright from Capital Economics.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees total U.S. oil production growth slipping to 1.1 mbpd in 2020 from 1.6 mbpd this year.

The rate of U.S. output growth has been declining as producers reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth quarter in a row for the first time since 1999.

U.S. WTI crude futures are forecast to average $57.70 a barrel next year, up from last month's forecast of $57.30.Demand is projected to grow by 0.9-1.4 mbpd in 2020 .

The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) new regulations favouring low-sulphur fuel oil effective Jan. 1, 2020 will be another dominant factor driving demand growth next year, analysts noted.

"The global growth rebound story should do wonders for oil prices in the first half of the year. Oversupply concerns will remain, but a pick up in demand will alleviate strong increases in production from Norway, Brazil and Guyana," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

While most respondents are optimistic about oil prices in the near term, none of the analysts polled expect benchmark Brent prices to rise above the 2019 high of $75.60 hit in April.

"The big question>OPEC and its producer allies have been capping their collective output since 2017 and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Friday said the OPEC+ nations might consider ending their oil output curbs in 2020.