美国页岩油：2020年石油市场最大的“通配符”

据今日油价1月5日报道，现在，对全球石油需求和OPEC +减产的担忧已成为油价走势的一部分，几乎没有人期望这些方向会带来任何惊喜。 但是，有一个“通配符“：美国页岩油产量。

CNBC援引Macro-Advisory的分析师的话表示，他将美国页岩油产量的增长前景列入了三个需要关注的价格因素清单中。

克里斯·韦弗称，今年的最大不确定性——而且已经开始被讨论——是：美国生产商能否或将能够继续像过去七八年那样增加更多的产量？这是一个很大的问题。

根据其他报告，问题可能没有那么大。 一方面，《华尔街日报》已经提醒了几个月以来页岩油生产放缓。尽管EIA的乐观生产报告显示去年10月份石油产量达到创纪录的1,266万桶/日，但前景仍不确定。

EIA发布10月石油生产报告的前几天，《华尔街日报》发表了另一篇报道，称随着产量的成熟，产量低于预测。仍在几天前，该日报对能源投资者发出了另一个警告：银行正在收紧对页岩油钻探者的资金。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

The Biggest Wild Card In 2020 Oil Markets

Concern about global oil demand and OPEC+ production cuts are now part of the oil price landscape and few expect any surprises coming from these directions. There is, however, a wild card: U.S. shale production.

CNBC this week quoted an analyst from Macro-Advisory, who included U.S. shale production growth prospects align="justify">“The big uncertainty this year — and it is already beginning to be talked about — is: Can or will U.S. producers be able to continue to add as much extra volume as they have been for the last seven or eight years? This is a huge question,” said Chris Weafer.

According to other reports, the question might not be as huge. The Wall Street Journal, for align="justify">A couple of days before the EIA report for oil production in October was released, the Wall Street Journal published another story, about well yields falling short of forecasts as they mature. A few days earlier still, the daily carried another warning for energy investors: banks are tightening their purse strings for shale oil drillers.