进入2020年LNG供过于求且价格低迷

据油气新闻1月6日消息称，独立商品情报机构（ICIS）的一份报告称，2019年全球液化天然气产量激增，引发供应过剩和价格低迷，预计这种情况将持续到2020年。

LNG Edge的初步全年数据显示，2019年的出口量为3.55亿吨，高于2018年的3.149亿吨。ICIS全球液化天然气编辑Ed Cox表示，这是产量有史以来最大的增长。

尽管东亚在2017年和2018年的需求增加，以吸收额外的产量，但今年的需求几乎没有变化。相反，欧洲的供应量创下历史新高，这对区域中心定价产生了重大影响，欧洲和亚洲之间的价格相关性不断增强。

根据LNG Edge的初步数据，在争夺最大出口国的过程中，卡塔尔保住了第一的位置，产量为7740万吨。ICIS的报告称，这与该公司的铭牌产能非常接近。

根据LNG Edge的供应预测，澳洲紧随其后，为7610万吨，较上年增加逾800万吨，增长了800万吨以上，并将在2020年位居榜首。

在新增的4000万吨供应中，大部分(3300万吨)来自澳大利亚、俄罗斯和美国。

2019年，俄罗斯在亚马尔和库页岛的产量尤其惊人。

但美国液化天然气成为焦点，产量为3560万吨，同比增长近1500万吨。根据LNG Edge供应预测，这种增长明年将继续，美国的产量将达到近5700万吨。这在很大程度上取决于在自由港和卡梅伦的液化天然气项目上新生产线的成功投产。

一些较成熟的生产商的产量在2019年也有所增长。阿尔及利亚和埃及的出口量都增长了200万吨以上，其中随着埃及的国内天然气供应量持续增长，产量达到了350万吨。

马来西亚的产量与2018年相比有了显著提高，当时原料气问题降低了开采率，巴布亚新几内亚的情况也类似，该国产量在2019年有所恢复，此前2018年的一次地震导致产量下降。

初步数据显示，2019年，欧洲液化天然气进口量增长近7600万吨，为迄今为止的最高纪录。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

LNG oversupply, lower prices to persist in 2020

Global LNG production jumped in 2019, triggering oversupply and low prices that are expected to persist in 2020, says a report by Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS).

Initial full-year data from LNG Edge shows exports at 355 million tonnes in 2019, up from 314.9 million tonnes in 2018. This represents the largest ever increase in production, said Ed Cox, Editor, Global LNG, ICIS.

While East Asian, especially Chinese, demand increased in 2017 and 2018 to absorb additional production, there was little change this year. Instead, supply pushed into Europe reached a record high, having a major impact align="justify">In the battle for top exporter, Qatar held align="justify">Australia came in a close second, at 76.1 million tonnes, a rise of over 8 million tonnes and should take top spot in 2020, based align="justify">Of the 40 million tonne increase in supply, the majority – 33m tonnes – came from Australia, Russia and the US.

Russian production rates at Yamal and Sakhalin were especially impressive in 2019.

But US LNG took centre stage, with 35.6 million tonnes produced, up by almost 15 million tonnes year-on-year. The increase will continue next year with the US set to produce almost 57 million tonnes, according to the LNG Edge supply forecast. Much will depend align="justify">Production from several of the more mature producers was higher too in 2019. Algerian and Egyptian exports both rose by more than 2m tonnes, with Egypt producing 3.5 million tonnes as its domestic gas supply continued to improve.

Malaysian production improved substantially from 2018 when feedgas issues reduced operating rates, with a similar story from Papua New Guinea where production recovered after the drop in 2018 caused by a nearby earthquake.

European LNG imports rose close to 76m tonnes in 2019, by far the highest ever recorded, according to the provisional data.