2020年磷酸盐市场面临供过于求

据ICIS网站1月6日伦敦报道 继一年的供过于求和全球需求低迷之后，磷酸盐市场正准备迎接一个更具挑战性的2020年。

印度将继续成为市场的关键因素，印度拥有较高的磷酸二铵（DAP）库存。

据估计，到2020年3月底，印度磷酸二铵进口总量将达到550万吨左右。随着新的预算和磷酸合同价格的结算，预计第二季度将有更多的进口需求回升。

去年12月下旬，OCP与其合资伙伴签订了磷酸合同，第一季度向印度交货，价格为590美元/吨（成本加运费），信用期为30天。

该价格较第四季度的625美元/吨的价格下跌35美元/吨，为连续第五次下跌。

磷酸二铵平价计算约为360美元/吨，氨水平均价格为265美元/吨。

预计磷酸价格的结算将为市场提供一定的价格方向，并对一季度的进口需求有所了解，因为进口磷酸二铵比国内使用磷酸生产磷酸二铵便宜。

随着中国国内磷酸二铵/磷酸一铵（MAP）的产量仍然较低，并将在第一季度继续保持。

王磊 摘译自 ICIS

原文如下：

Phosphates market ready for a difficult 2020 plagued by oversupply

The phosphates market is bracing for a challenging 2020, following a year of oversupply and lacklustre demand globally.

India will continue to be the deciding factor in the market, as is the case every year. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) stocks are high in the country.

It is estimated that total DAP imports will reach around 5.5m tonnes by the end of March 2020. More import demand is expected to pick up in the second quarter, following the new budget and the settlement of the phosphoric acid contract price.

In late December, OCP settled phosphoric acid contracts with its joint venture partners for first-quarter deliveries to India at $590/tonne CFR (cost and freight) with 30 days’ credit.

The price reflects a $35/tonne decrease from the fourth-quarter price of $625/tonne CFR, and is the fifth consecutive decrease.

The DAP parity is calculated around $360/tonne CFR, with an average ammonia price at $265/tonne CFR.

The settlement of the phosphoric acid price is expected to give some price direction to the market, as well as some insight align="justify">Domestic DAP/monoammonium phosphate (MAP) production rates are still low and will continue in the first quarter.