2019年美国天然气价格为过去三年最低

据美国能源情报署1月9日报道，2019年路易斯安那州国家基准亨利中心（Henry Hub）的天然气现货价格平均为2.57美元/百万英热单位（MMBtu），比2018年低约60美分，是2016年以来的最低年平均价格。2019年天然气价格走低，支撑了消费增长，特别是发电行业和天然气出口增长。国内天然气产量的持续增长也支撑了全年天然气价格的走低。

2019年大部分地区主要交易中心的月平均天然气价格在2月份达到最高水平，从4月到12月相对较低且稳定。在东北部地区，2018-19年冬季，新英格兰液化天然气（LNG）的额外进口量出现了限价飙升。尽管2019年2月美国中西部地区遭遇寒流，但芝加哥市的天然气价格仍低于此前极端天气事件期间的价格。

然而，在太平洋西北部，冬季末反常的寒冷天气加上区域供应紧张和库存减少，导致3月份西北苏马斯枢纽的价格大幅飙升。二叠纪地区额外的管道输送能力缓解了一些基础设施限制，德克萨斯州西部瓦哈枢纽的区域价格在连续六个月低于1美元/百万英热单位（3月至8月）后上涨。

根据美国能源信息署（EIA）截至10月的月度数据以及11月和12月的估计，2019年住宅和商业部门的天然气消费量比2018年增长了2%。2019年，发电部门的天然气使用量也有所增加，特别是7月和8月，中西部和东北部的热浪导致天然气发电厂的发电量创下历史新高。

夏季天然气价格较低，6月至8月平均为2.33美元/百万英热单位（1998年以来夏季平均亨利中心天然气价格最低），支持了夏季天然气发电量的增加。

自2016年以来，干天然气产量每年都在增长。在2018年创纪录增长后，到今年前10个月，产量增加7.5 Bcf/d(十亿立方英尺/天)。天然气产量持续增长对价格构成下行压力，价格在2019年大部分时间持续下降。

2019年投入使用的大多数新管道位于中南部和东北部地区。这些管道为二叠纪和阿巴拉契亚的供应盆地提供了额外的外输能力，并将为LNG出口、管道输往墨西哥和美国天然气发电提供越来越多的需求。

2019，天然气出口对墨西哥和液化天然气的出口持续增长。美国天然气输气管道在2019前10个月平均输给墨西哥5.1 Bcf/d，比2018年平均值高出0.4 Bcf/d。随着美国跨境管道产能的扩张，墨西哥的一些新管道继续遭受延迟，限制了出口的增长。

随着美国成为全球第三大液化天然气出口国，美国的液化天然气出口量在2019年创下新纪录，平均估计为5.0 Bcf/d（比2018年高69%）。2019年，几个新的液化天然气设施投入使用。路易斯安那州的卡梅隆液化天然气公司（Cameron LNG）在5月份投入使用了第一个液化装置（简称Train）。得克萨斯州的弗里波特液化天然气公司9月从新投产的Train 1出口了第一批货物，随后在12月从train 2出口了第一批货物。科珀斯克里斯蒂液化天然气公司（也在得克萨斯州）在7月交付了Train 2。去年12月，乔治亚州的厄尔巴岛启用了三个可移动模块化液化系统（MMLS）装置，并出口了第一批液化天然气货物。

贾丽 摘译自 美国能源情报署

原文如下：

Natural gas prices in 2019 were the lowest in the past three years

In 2019, natural gas spot prices at the national benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $2.57 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), about 60 cents per MMBtu lower than in 2018 and the lowest annual average price since 2016. Lower natural gas prices in 2019 supported higher consumption—particularly in the electric generation sector—and higher natural gas exports. Continued growth in domestic production of natural gas also supported lower natural gas prices throughout the year.

Monthly average natural gas prices at most key regional trading hubs in 2019 reached their highest levels in February, and they were relatively low and stable from April through December. In the Northeast, additional imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into New England limited price spikes during the winter of 2018–19. Despite a cold snap in the Midwest in February 2019, natural gas prices at Chicago Citygate were lower than during previous extreme weather events.

However, in the Pacific Northwest, unseasonably cold weather at the end of winter coupled with regional supply constraints and decreased storage inventories led to significant price spikes at the Northwest Sumas hub in March. Additional pipeline takeaway capacity in the Permian region eased some infrastructure constraints and increased regional prices at the Waha hub in western Texas after six consecutive months of prices lower than $1/MMBtu (March through August).

Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increased by 2% in 2019 compared with 2018, based align="justify">Lower summer natural gas prices, which averaged $2.33/MMBtu in June through August (the lowest summer average Henry Hub natural gas price since 1998), have supported higher natural gas-fired generation in the summer months.

Dry natural gas production has grown every year since 2016. Production increased by 7.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) through the first 10 months of the year after record growth in 2018. Sustained growth in natural gas production put downward pressure align="justify">Most new pipelines placed in service in 2019 were located in the South Central and Northeast regions. These pipelines provide additional takeaway capacity out of the Permian and Appalachian supply basins and will serve growing demand for LNG exports, pipeline exports to Mexico, and U.S. natural gas-fired power generation.

In 2019, natural gas exports—both by pipeline to Mexico and as LNG—continued to grow. U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico by pipeline averaged 5.1 Bcf/d in the first 10 months of 2019, 0.4 Bcf/d more than the 2018 average. Following an expansion in U.S. cross-border pipeline capacity, several new pipelines in Mexico continued to experience delays, limiting growth in exports.

U.S. LNG exports set a new record in 2019, averaging an estimated 5.0 Bcf/d (69% higher than in 2018) as the United States became the third-largest global LNG exporter. Several new LNG facilities were placed in service in 2019. Louisiana’s Cameron LNG placed its first liquefaction unit (referred to as a train) in service in May. Texas’s Freeport LNG exported its first cargo from the newly commissioned Train 1 in September, followed by its first export cargo from Train 2 in December. Corpus Christi LNG (also in Texas) commissioned its second train in July. In December, Georgia’s Elba Island placed in service the first three of its moveable modular liquefaction system (MMLS) units and exported its first LNG cargo.