美国石油与天然气市场基本面分化明显

据油气新闻1月11日消息称，美国石油和天然气的基本面分化在市场上表现得很明显，石油和天然气的价格比率已飙升至六年来的最高水平。

最近，石油与天然气的比率（即石油与天然气交易的比率)达到了30：1，并且有可能进一步上升，因为分析师预计，到2020年，天然气平均价格将连续第二年下跌，跌至20多年来的最低水平。

这是因为大多数美国钻井公司都不再寻找天然气。

类似EOG资源公司、Pioneer天然资源公司、Diamondback能源公司和埃克森美孚等公司大多在寻求更有价值的石油和天然气液体，这将带来大量伴生天然气，让生产商对天然气价格下跌不那么敏感。

美国原油期货本周触及4月以来最高水准，而天然气期货则接近8月以来最低水准，令油气比率升至30:1，为2013年9月以来最高。

过去5年，这一比例平均为19比1，但油价在过去一年有所上涨，而天然气价格则小幅下跌。温和的天气和供过于求的新供应阻碍了天然气的发展，尽管美国超冷液化天然气的出口大幅增长。

在能源当量的基础上，石油的交易量应该是天然气的6倍左右。

由于创纪录的产量，电力公司得以在即将到来的供暖季节到来之前，将储气量提高至接近正常水平，因此出现了供应短缺。

根据美国能源情报署的数据，2019年天然气产量增长约10%，达到创纪录的920.5亿立方英尺/天。

分析师预计，随着能源企业削减支出，这一增速将会下降，但能源情报署仍预计2020年的产出将增长约3%。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Divergent paths: Oil, natural gas going different directions

The diverging fundamentals of U.S. oil and natural gas can be seen dramatically in the markets, where the oil-to-gas price ratio has surged to its highest in six years.

The oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with natural gas, recently reached 30-to-1, and could increase further as analysts expect average gas prices will fall for a second consecutive year in 2020 to their lowest level in over 20 years.

That is because most U.S. drillers are not looking for gas.

Companies like EOG Resources Inc, Pioneer Natural Resources Co, Diamondback Energy Inc and Exxon Mobil Corp are mostly seeking more valuable oil and natural gas liquids, which bring with it a lot of associated gas, making producers less sensitive to gas price declines.

U.S. oil futures this week hit their highest level since April, while gas was near its lowest since August, boosting the oil-to-gas ratio to 30-to-1, highest since September 2013.

Over the last five years, that ratio has averaged 19-to-1, but oil prices have risen in the last year while gas has edged lower. Mild weather and a glut of new supply has held back gas, even as U.S. exports of super-cooled liquefied natural gas have soared.

On an energy equivalent basis, oil should trade about six times over gas.

The increase in shorts comes as record production allowed utilities to boost the amount of gas in storage to near normal levels ahead of the coming heating season.

Gas production rose about 10% in 2019 to a record 92.05 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Analysts expect the pace of that growth to fall as energy firms cut spending, but EIA still expects output will rise about 3% in 2020.