市场预测 今年石油市场或会出现缺口

据能源新闻1月14日消息称，2020年伊始，股市再次创下历史新高。人们刚刚结束了油价上涨超过30%的一年。不过，天然气价格今年收盘时下跌了近40%，凸显出这两种大宗商品之间的脱节程度。

石油仍然是世界上最重要的商品，所以人们总是试图预测油价的走向。人们通常通过观察供求趋势和库存水平来做出这个预测。人们通常也会通过查看其他分析师的预测来检查预测是否正确。

在过去的几年里，市场以太低的油价开始了新的一年。因此，市场最近几年的预测是价格会上涨。今年，西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)开盘价为每桶61.17美元，全年均价为每桶56.98美元。自2014-2015年油价下滑以来，油价只有一次突破了60美元/桶。2018年年初油价为60.37美元/桶，在结束时跌至每桶50美元以下，最高涨至75美元/桶以上。

美国能源情报署(EIA)预计，由于预计全球石油库存将在2020年上半年上升，今年原油价格将平均下跌。

相比之下，摩根大通预计，由于欧佩克减产和新兴市场需求增长，今年石油市场将出现每日20万桶的缺口。他们预计全球石油需求将以每日100万桶的速度增长，这与大多数其他预测一致。

美国目前的原油库存约为每年这个时候的平均水平。全球库存略低于5年平均水平。

市场相信，石油市场的预期与现实之间存在脱节。许多人预计，全球正处于石油需求的顶峰，但实际上市场认为距此还有数年之遥。然而，这些预期给油价带来了阻力。但市场修正这些预期的唯一途径是降低原油库存。鉴于近年来美国页岩油的强劲增长，这种情况还没有发生。

最终，市场相信欧佩克将继续减产以支撑油价，并认为美国页岩油产量增长将继续放缓(下一个预测)，全球石油需求将再次增长至新的历史高点。

但平均来看，今年石油市场似乎相当平衡。这为油价平稳走势提供了理由。无论如何，原油库存并不高，市场认为欧佩克将继续减产以支撑油价。

一些观察者呼吁，面对石油需求的峰值，石油价格将很快崩溃。人们不相信2020年的价格会比现在低很多。

曹海斌 摘译自 能源新闻

原文如下：

Energy Sector Predictions For 2020

We begin 2020 with the stock market again testing record highs. We just finished a year in which oil prices rose by more than 30%. However, natural gas prices closed the year nearly 40% lower, emphasizing the extent to which these two commodities have become unlinked.

Oil is still the world’s most important commodity, so I always try to lead off with a prediction align="justify">Over the past few years, we started the year with an oil price that I felt was too low. So my prediction in recent years was for higher prices. This year, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) opened at $61.17 per barrel (bbl), and averaged $56.98/bbl for the year. The year has align="justify">The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects crude oil prices to be lower align="justify">In contrast, JP Morgan is projecting an oil market deficit this year of 200,000 BPD, because of OPEC production cuts and demand growth in emerging markets. They expect oil demand to grow by 1 million BPD globally, which is consistent with most other forecasts.

U.S. crude oil inventories are about average for this time of year. Global inventories are slightly below the five-year average.

I believe there is a disconnect in the oil market between expectations and reality. There are lots of expectations that we are align="justify">Ultimately, I believe OPEC will continue to cut production in order to prop up oil prices. I think U.S. shale production growth is going to continue to slow (next prediction), and that global oil demand will align="justify">But the oil markets looks to be pretty balanced this year align="justify">Some have called for oil prices to imminently collapse in the face of peak oil demand. I don’t believe prices will go much lower than they are presently in 2020.