EIA预测明年美国电力行业天然气消费量将下降3.2%

据天然气新闻2020年1月14日华盛顿报道，具有竞争力的可再生能源和预期更高的天然气价格已促使美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，美国电力行业的天然气消费量在2020年增长放缓后在2021年将下降3.2%。

EIA在其1月份短期能源展望报告中表示，由于新的燃气发电能力和具有竞争力的天然气价格，美国去年发电平均每日消耗了310亿立方英尺的天然气，比2018年增长了7%。

EIA的 1月份短期能源展望报告称，2021年电力消费量的下降反映出可再生能源产能的持续增加带来的竞争。EIA补充称，天然气消费放缓“也反映了天然气现货价格在2021年将高于2020年的预测，这将使天然气在电力市场上的竞争力低于煤炭。”

除了消费趋势，EIA还预计，到2021年，美国可市场销售的天然气日产量将降至1016亿立方英尺，低于2020年预测的1020.6亿立方英尺。

李峻 编译自 天然气新闻

原文如下：

EIA forecasts declining natural gas consumption in US power sector in 2021

Competing renewables and expected higher natural gas prices have prompted the US Energy Information Administration to forecast that natural gas consumption in the power sector will fall 3.2% in 2021 after witnessing slower growth in 2020.

The agency, in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, said electric generation consumed an average 31 Bcf/d in 2019, up 7% from 2018 because of new gas-fired generation capacity and competitive gas prices.

Declining power sector consumption in 2021 reflects competition amid continuing renewables capacity additions, the outlook said. The slowing consumption "also reflects a forecast of higher natural gas spot prices in 2021 compared with 2020, which would make natural gas less competitive against coal in power markets," EIA added.

Alongside the consumption trend, the agency outlook expects that total marketed gas production will slow in 2021 to an average 101.6 Bcf/d, down from 102.06 Bcf/d forecast in 2020.