欧亚集团预测沙特与俄罗斯或将恢复减产

据塔斯社3月11日报道，政治风险研究和咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)总裁兼创始人伊恩?布雷默(Ian Bremmer)对塔斯社(TASS)表示，目前俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯在石油供应上的僵局，可能引发全球石油市场上的一场战术价格战。

这位著名的专家表示:“最有可能的结果是一场持续数周或数月的有限的战术价格战，直到油价低到足以改变莫斯科和利雅得的基本观点，回到恢复欧佩克+减产的某种形式的妥协。”

布雷默表示：“俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯之间有可能达成一项协议。价格战将是痛苦的，没有任何一方能保证赢得一场长期战争。有弹性的非欧佩克国家的石油供应，以及大规模、持续增加库存的前景，将对价格战战略构成挑战，促使沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯恢复减产。”

在评论美国政府可能采取的行动时，这位专家指出，华盛顿方面正在考虑为美国页岩油生产商提供财政支持，但中期来看，产量可能会逐渐放缓。分析师警告称:“随着全球库存的补充，油价下跌将是缓慢的，这会给沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯带来更大压力。”

洪伟立 摘译自 塔斯社

原文如下：

Russia-Saudi dispute will trigger tactical price war>The current standoff between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil production volume is likely to spark a tactical price war>"Most likely outcome is a limited and tactical price war that lasts several weeks or months, until prices are low enough to change fundamental views in Moscow and Riyadh back to some form of compromise>According to Bremmer, an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia is possible. "The price war will be painful with no guarantee of either side winning a long battle. Combination of resilient non-OPEC supply and the prospect of a massive, continuing stock build will challenge the price war strategy, creating incentives for Saudi Arabia and Russia to resume OPEC+ cuts."

In comment on the US government’s possible action, the expert noted that Washington was considering financial support for US shale producers but production would likely slow gradually over the medium term. "The decline will be slow leading to lower prices as global inventories fill up, putting more pressure on Saudi Arabia and Russia," the analyst warned.