今年美国原油产量增长将放缓

据能源世界网3月12日纽约报道，预测人士本周表示，在欧佩克和俄罗斯拒绝加紧减产和价格暴跌的情况下，美国页岩油生产商进一步下调了投资计划后，美国的石油产量预计将在今年放缓，并在2021年彻底下降。

预测者和国际机构警告称，由于需求增长将更加缓慢，IEA表示，2020年的石油消费量实际上将下降。

沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯之间的价格战导致本周油价下跌超过20％。

周一，IEA预测，年度需求首次下降自2009年以来，称病毒爆发导致第一季度每天250万桶的大规模收缩。该机构下调了2020年的预测，并表示日需求量将比2019年收缩9万桶。

消费的急剧下降引发了人们的预期，即主要石油生产商将限制供应以保持价格浮动并限制该病毒的影响。但是俄罗斯拒绝支持OPEC要求的更大幅度的减产，相反，两位前盟友都表示将提高产量。

周三，欧佩克表示，其认为第一季度的日需求收缩约180万桶。

EIA预测，较低的油价将减少今年的钻井活动，将导致美国日产量在2021年下降至1,270万桶。

EIA管理者Linda Capuano在该机构发布了短期能源展望后表示，这将是自2016年以来产量首次出现同比下降。

周一，投资银行Stifel预计，美国陆上石油钻机数量（表示未来产量的指标）今年可能会下降约250台。咨询公司Evercore ISI表示，今年美国的钻机数量将下降25％以上。

根据能源服务公司贝克休斯公司（Baker Hughes Co.）的数据显示，在截至3月6日的一周中，美国有682座在用石油钻机。

Stifel预测，美国的日产量可能会从2020年的1,260万桶下降到2021年的1,110万桶。

大型银行也削减了需求和价格预测。高盛预测全球日需求将缩减15万桶，JBC能源表示，冠状病毒的影响可能会在2020年使全球日需求将削减多达50万桶。

美国银行将其布伦特原油价格预测从每桶54美元降至2020年的每桶45美元。

郝芬 译自 能源世界网

原文如下：

US crude output growth to slow, oil prices to slump

US oil production is expected to grow more slowly in 2020 and drop outright in 2021, forecasters said this week after US shale producers cut investment plans further when OPEC and Russia refused to steepen output cuts and prices plunged.

Forecasters and international agencies have warned that demand will grow more slowly due to the global coronavirus outbreak, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil consumption would actually drop in 2020.

The price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia caused oil prices to fall more than 20 per cent this week.

On Monday, the IEA forecast the first decline in annual demand since 2009, saying the virus outbreak led to a massive, 2.5-million-barrel-per-day contraction for the first quarter. The agency cut its 2020 forecast and said demand would contract by 90,000 bpd from 2019.

The sharp downturn in consumption sparked expectations that major oil producers would limit supplies to keep prices afloat and limit fallout from the virus. But Russia refused to support steeper oil output cuts called for by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and instead both former allies said they would raise production.

On Wednesday, OPEC said it believes demand contracted by roughly 1.8 million bpd in the first quarter.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected lower oil prices would reduce drilling activity this year, causing US production to decline to 12.7 million bpd in 2021.

"This would be the first year-on-year decline in production since 2016," EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said after the agency released its short-term energy outlook.

On Monday, investment bank Stifel projected the US>There were 682 oil rigs active in the United States in the week ended March 6, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co .

Stifel projected US production could fall to 11.1 million bpd in 2021 from an expected 12.6 million bpd in 2020.

Major banks also have cut their demand and price forecasts. Goldman Sachs predicted a contraction of 150,000 bpd in global demand, and JBC Energy said coronavirus effects could cut global demand by as much as 500,000 bpd in 2020.

Bank of America reduced its Brent crude price forecast to $45 a barrel in 2020 from $54 a barrel.