EIA：美国原油产量预计将下降120万桶/天

据能源信息统计4月9日消息，根据美国能源情报署(EIA)的最新预测， 2020年美国原油产量预计将减少50万桶/天(降幅4%)，至平均产量1180万桶/天。这将是自2016年以来原油产量首次出现年度下降。2021年，美国原油产量将再下降70万桶/天(降幅6%)，至1110万桶/天。此外，2020年美国汽油消费量将下降9%，至840万桶/天，而航空燃油和馏分燃油的消费量将分别下降10%和5%。

由于预期的原油产量下降，美国计划在2020年增加原油净进口量，同时减少出口。由于产量下降和全球需求减少，净出口应该会下降，这将导致美国在2020年第三季度恢复为原油和石油产品净进口国，并在2021年底前的大多数月份保持净进口国的地位。

EIA指出，由于疫情对能源市场的影响仍在不断发展，因此其预测存在高度不确定性。此外，政府机构假设不重新执行欧佩克+协议。

裘寅 编译自 enerdata

原文如下：

EIA forecasts a 1.2 mb/d drop in US crude oil production in 2020-2021

According to the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production is expected to decrease by 0.5 mb/d (-4%) in 2020 to an average of 11.8 mb/d . It would be the first annual decline in crude oil production since 2016. In 2021, US crude oil production should decrease by another 0.7 mb/d (-6%) and would reach 11.1 mb/d. In addition, US motor gasoline consumption is set to fall by 9% in 2020 to 8.4 mb/d, while jet fuel and distillate fuel oil consumption decreasing by 10% and 5%, respectively.

With the expected decline in crude oil production, US net crude oil imports are planned to increase in 2020, while fewer barrels will be available for exports. Net exports should decline due to this lower production and to a reduced global demand, leading the United States to become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and to remain a net importer in most months through the end of 2021.

The EIA indicates that its forecast is subject to a high uncertainty due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on energy markets, which is still evolving. Moreover, the government agency assumes no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement.