IEA：石油市场复苏面临两大不确定性

据今日油价5月15日报道，国际能源署IEA表示，5月开始，石油市场需求开始回暖，但市场供需平衡在脆弱的复苏道路上，仍面临两大不确定因素。

不确定因素之一是，欧佩克+成员国能否实现并保持减产。IEA表示，尽管欧佩克中东重量级国家沙特、阿联酋和科威特承诺将进一步削减石油产量，但整个欧佩克+集团将如何继续遵守减产，这一点非常不确定。

另一个不确定因素是，疫情传播会不会再次加重。在经济开始重新开放、封锁得到缓解之后，包括意大利和英国等欧洲一些受灾最严重的国家在内，如果疫情再次开始上升，对石油市场的再平衡和油价复苏来说，一个更大的不确定性将再次出现。

这些不确定性如果出现，可能会危及IEA对全球石油市场的乐观看法。国际能源机构在5月份的报告中预计，2020年全球石油需求将下降860万桶/日，这是今年的一个重大需求损失，但略低于该机构在4月份报告中预测的930万桶/日需求破坏。

二季度，IEA预计，需求将下降1990万桶/日。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

IEA: Oil Market Recovery Faces Two Major Uncertainties

Even after the ‘Black April’ ended and demand started to crawl up, the oil market and supply-demand balances continue to face two major uncertainties>In its Oil Market Report for May, the IEA noted that despite pledges both for deeper cuts and over-compliance from OPEC’s Middle East heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, it is highly uncertain how compliant the whole OPEC+ group would remain with the production reductions.>An even bigger headache for the oil market rebalancing and oil price recovery is the major uncertainty if coronavirus infections will start rising again in a second wave, after economies have started to re-open and lockdowns are being eased, including in some of the worst hit countries in Europe such as Italy and the United Kingdom.

“These are big questions – and the answers we get in the coming weeks will have major consequences for the oil market,” the Paris-based agency said.

These uncertainties, if realized, could put at risk the IEA’s slightly more optimistic view>For Q2 2020 alone, the IEA expects demand to plunge by 19.9 million bpd compared to last year’s consumption levels.