美国页岩油产量要到明年才会恢复

据今日油价5月29日报道，精密钻探公司首席执行官凯文•内韦乌（Kevin Neveu）表示，美国页岩油产量可能需要一年的时间才能恢复增长。

内韦乌指出，页岩油生产商正在接受挑战，当然产量正在放缓，活动也在放缓，但要让产量再次复苏，勘探与生产公司最先突破口。

在2014年至2016年的上一次油价危机中，当供应趋紧、价格上涨时，就曾出现过这种情况。这种情况很可能会再次发生，且不能确定会在何时发生。

要让油价回到危机前的水平，我们需要看到需求的显著改善和供应的下降。就目前而言，后一种情况比前一种情况更有可能发生，因为政府已经采取了很多措施来减少供应，但却几乎无法刺激需求，而且这还不包括可能产生的第二波疫情的影响。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Production Won't Bounce Back Until 2021

It could take a year before U.S. shale production starts to rise again, the chief executive of Precision Drilling Kevin Neveu told Bloomberg.

This could happen even if a hypothetical second wave of Covid-19 infections has a milder effect align="justify">“They’re [shale oil producers] taking it align="justify">This is what has happened before when supply has tightened and prices have risen, during the last oil price crisis in 2014-2016. Chances are that it will happen again. When it will happen remains the open question.

For oil prices to get back to pre-crisis levels we would need to see significantly improved demand and lower supply. For now, there is a better chance for the latter than the former, and this is without factoring in a second wave of Covid-19 infections. This is simply because a lot is being done to shrink supply, yet there is little that can be done to stimulate demand.