路透社：今年油价不太可能突破每桶40美元

据油价网2020年5月29日休斯顿报道，路透社周五（29日）对数十位石油分析师的月度调查结果显示，尽管欧佩克+和北美纷纷减产，而需求也在缓慢增长，但由于两大经济体关系重新紧张，今年的平均油价预计将不会比目前的油价高很多。

被路透社调查的43位分析师认为，美国基准WTI原油今年的平均价格将为每桶32.78美元，大致相当于5月29日早盘的水准。

路透社调查的分析师预计，今年布兰特原油均价将为每桶37.58美元。与4月调查相比，分析师已调高了他们对这两种基准原油价格的预估，当时他们曾预计WTI原油均价将为每桶31.47美元，而布伦特原油均价将为每桶35.84美元。

今年迄今，布伦特原油均价为每桶42.37美元。

29日稍早，油价日内跌幅超过了2%，并有望录得5周来首周下跌。然而，在经历了石油需求和石油期货的“黑色四月”后，5月份石油价格上涨了近40%，因此尽管出现了周跌幅，但价格仍有望创下自1999年3月以来的最佳月度表现。

对于今年的平均油价，分析师预计，欧佩克+协议内外的主要产油国将减产，未来几个月支撑油价的需求将恢复。然而，接受路透社调查的分析师预计，基本面改善带来的价格上涨可能会受到美国股市突然上涨的限制，这可能会损害后疫情时代的经济复苏和贸易。

本周早些时候，摩根士丹利表示，由于需求回升，布伦特原油价格预计将在今年年底前达到每桶40美元。需求回升的速度快于该行此前的预测。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Prices Are Unlikely To Break $40 This Year

Despite production cuts from OPEC+ and North America and slowly improving demand, oil prices are not expected to average much higher than current prices in 2020 because of renewed the tensions, the monthly Reuters poll of dozens of oil analysts showed align="justify">According to 43 analysts surveyed by Reuters, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude is set to average $32.78 a barrel in 2020, which is roughly where the contract was trading early align="justify">Brent Crude prices are expected to average $37.58 per barrel this year, the analysts in the Reuters poll predicted. Experts have lifted their forecasts for both benchmarks compared to the April poll, when WTI Crude was expected to average $31.47 a barrel and Brent Crude was seen averaging $35.84 per barrel.

So far this year, Brent Crude prices have averaged $42.37 a barrel.

Early align="justify">For the average prices in 2020, analysts expect the cuts from major producers in and outside the OPEC+ pact and the recovering demand to support oil in the coming months. However, the analysts polled by Reuters expect that price gains from improving fundamentals could be capped by flare-ups in the U.S.-China relations, which could damage the post-coronavirus economic recovery and trade.

Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley said it expected Brent Crude to trade at $40 a barrel by the end of the year thanks to the recovery in demand, which has taken off faster than the bank had predicted.