全球油气价格仍面临风险

据彭博社6月2日报道，原油和天然气市场正在经历熊市，熊市随股市一起反弹，恢复下跌的风险上升。西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)可能会接近每桶40美元，但更有可能被吸引到接近20美元/桶的水平，这是期货历史上交易价格范围波动最广的一次。天然气价格也出现了类似的上涨，但像原油一样供过于求，而且面临着自大萧条以来最严重的全球经济衰退，预计天然气价格将保持在每百万英热2美元以下。

能源价格面临的最大风险是股市下跌，除非出现的V型全球经济复苏局面。在疫情之前，能源市场就存在不利因素，虽然近期油价有所反弹，但更倾向于价格会走低。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

WTI crude oil toward $20, natural gas below $2 as economy slows

This analysis is by Bloomberg.

Crude oil and natural gas are enduring bear markets that have bounced along with equities and are at elevated risk of resuming declines, in our view. West Texas Intermediate may fill the gap up toward $40 a barrel but is more likely to gravitate closer to about $20, its most widely traded price in futures history. Natural gas has shown a similar surge, but oversupplied like crude and facing the worst global recession since the Great Depression, we expect prices to hold below $2 per million BTUs.

The biggest risk to energy prices is a decline in the stock market, which also looks high, except in the unlikely scenario of a V-shaped global economic recovery. Pre-existing unfavorable conditions for energy before the coronavirus, and the recent price bounce, keeps our bias tilted toward lower prices.