俄罗斯在此次石油危机中或将有更好表现

据油田技术4月5日报道，一个月前，欧佩克+召开了非生产性会议，但未能达成任何一致协议。随着全球市场石油需求的大幅削减，美国号召俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯于2020年4月6日重返谈判程序，讨论减产至少1000万桶/天的计划。

该协议将有助于平衡需求缺口，使价格回到较有利可图的水平，并有助于避免生产停滞。但这个计划取决于石油生产商们愿意削减多少产量。

Rystad能源公司的一项研究表明，当前形势下，沙特阿拉伯在以下五个财务衡量标准上遭受的打击将比俄罗斯更大:对石油和天然气收入的影响、财政收支平衡价格、财政赤字和外汇储备、预算赤字和国内政策。

首先从对石油和天然气收入的影响方面考虑。根据Rystad的基本假设，今年布伦特原油的平均价格为34美元/桶，2021年为44美元/桶，沙特阿拉伯今年的收入将比2019年减少一半，到2021年将恢复30%，达到近1350亿美元。因此，以34美元/桶的油价计算，沙特阿拉伯在2020年将损失1050亿美元的财政收入，如果油价降至20美元/桶，即使增加了石油产量，沙特阿拉伯今年将损失高达1500亿美元。

同样，俄罗斯的收入将在2020年下降47%，并在2021年恢复35%，达到1140亿美元。按照34美元/桶的油价计算，俄罗斯今年的财政收入将减少约750亿美元，而按照20美元/桶的油价计算，俄罗斯财政收入将减少1100亿美元。在20美元/桶的情况下，俄罗斯的收入损失稍好于沙特阿拉伯，因为俄罗斯天然气行业收入占比更高。

王佳晶 摘译自 油田技术

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: in OPEC+ poker game, Russia holds better cards than Saudi Arabia

A month after the last unproductive OPEC+ meeting and with Covid-19 slashing demand amid the>The deal would help balance the demand shortfall and bring prices back to more profitable levels and help avoid production shut-ins. The sticking point is how much each producer is willing to cut. But, in case of another deadlock between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which of the two oil majors is better positioned to withstand an extended oil price war with fewer losses?

A Rystad Energy research shows that Saudi Arabia will suffer a bigger hit than Russia in all the following five financial criteria examined: the impact>Impact>In Rystad's base-case scenario of an average oil price of US$34/bbl of Brent this year and US$44 next year, Saudi Arabia’s revenues will halve this year compared to 2019 before recovering by 30% to almost US$135 billion in 2021. As a result, at a US$34 oil price, the country will lose US$105 billion of revenues in 2020 – and in case of a US$20 oil price, Saudi Arabia will lose up to US$150 billion this year, even with the increase in production.

Similarly, Russia’s revenues will slump by 47% in 2020 and recover back by 35% in 2021 to US$114 billion. Russia will lose about US$75 billion in revenue this year at a US$34 oil price, while the revenue shortfall could be US$110 billion at a US$20 oil price. Russia would hold up better than Saudi Arabia in terms of revenue loss in a US$20/bbl scenario because it has a higher contribution from gas to overall revenues.?